Modeling potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global electric vehicle supply chain
Xin Sun,
Gang Liu,
Han Hao,
Zongwei Liu,
Fuquan Zhao
Affiliations
Xin Sun
State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Center for Resources Energy and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Gang Liu
SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Green Technology, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense, Denmark
Han Hao
State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Center for Resources Energy and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Corresponding author
Zongwei Liu
State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Fuquan Zhao
State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Summary: The on-going COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns cast significant impacts on global economy in the short run. Their impact on stability of global electric vehicles (EVs) supply chain and thus our climate ambition in the long run, however, remains hitherto largely unexplored. We aim to address this gap based on an integrated model framework, including assessing supply risks of 17 selected core commodities throughout the EV supply chain and further applying the supply constraints to project future EV sales until 2030. Our model results under three pandemic development scenarios indicate that if the pandemic is effectively contained before 2024, the global EV industry will recover without fundamentally scathed and thus can maintain the same growth trend as in the no-pandemic scenario by 2030. We suggest that fiscal stimulus in the postpandemic era should be directed more toward upgrading the quality of battery products, rather than expanding the production capacity.
