A Novel Distributed Photovoltaic Output Interval Prediction Method

Abstract

ObjectivesDistributed photovoltaic power prediction is of great significance for the operation and scheduling of photovoltaic power plants. Point prediction methods are difficult to comprehensively describe the uncertainty of distributed photovoltaic power. This article proposed a distributed photovoltaic power interval prediction model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and sparrow search algorithm optimized least squares support vector machine (SSA-LSSVM).MethodsFirstly, the photovoltaic sequence was broken down into multimodal components through CEEMDAN, and then the high-frequency non-stationary components obtained from the first decomposition were decomposed twice. Secondly, sample entropy (SE) was used to reconstruct all components into trend and oscillation components. Then, the point prediction values of the two components were obtained through SSA-LSSVM. Finally, the probability density estimation was performed on the point prediction error of the oscillation component, and the stacked point prediction value was used to obtain the overall prediction interval result.ResultsThe interval prediction model proposed in this paper has higher interval coverage and narrower average interval width.ConclusionsAdding secondary modal decomposition to distributed photovoltaic power data processing and combining sample entropy to reconstruct its sub-sequences can effectively reduce the complexity of the original prediction components and improve the accuracy of model prediction.

Keywords

• distributed photovoltaic
• power prediction
• kernel density estimation
• intervel prediction