Novel nomogram for predicting pulmonary complications in patients with blunt chest trauma with rib fractures: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract The direct consequences of chest trauma may cause adverse outcomes. Therefore, the early detection of high-risk patients and appropriate interventions can improve patient outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the risk factor for overall pulmonary complications in patients with blunt traumatic rib fractures. Prospectively recorded data of patients with blunt chest trauma in a level 1 trauma center between January 2019 and October 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcomes were one or more pulmonary complications. To minimize the overfitting of the prediction model, we used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression. We input selected features using LASSO regression into the multivariable logistic regression model (MLR). We also constructed a nomogram to calculate approximate individual probability. Altogether, 542 patients were included. The LASSO regression model identified age, injury severity score (ISS), and flail motion of the chest wall as significant risk factors. In the MLR analysis, age (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.08; p < 0.001), ISS (aOR 1.10; 95% CI 1.05–1.16; p < 0.001), and flail motion (aOR 8.82; 95% CI 4.13–18.83; p < 0.001) were significant. An MLR-based nomogram predicted the individual risk, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.826. We suggest a novel nomogram with good performance for predicting adverse pulmonary outcomes. The flail motion of the chest wall may be the most significant risk factor for pulmonary complications.