Transient Behavior and Interplay Between Seismic and Aseismic Deformation Near the Tip of a Creeping Segment: Insights From the Northern Jordan Valley Segment of the Dead Sea Fault

Abstract

Abstract Transient aseismic deformation is observed using dense geodetic measurements across the northern Jordan Valley Fault (JVF) segment of the Dead Sea Fault (DSF). The fault was creeping until 2013 at a rate of 2.6 ± 0.3 mm/yr. It stopped creeping between 2013 and 2018 and then started creeping again at a similar rate. These transitions between the creep and locked modes of deformation correlate well with the 2013 and 2018 seismic sequences that occurred near the tip of the northern JVF creeping segment. The creep caused the accumulation of Coulomb stresses near the fault tip, which promoted earthquake nucleation in this region. The 2013 seismic sequence, with a maximum moment magnitude of 3.7, was probably too small to release these stresses, and they were released during the 2018 seismic sequence, with a maximum moment magnitude of 4.5, which allowed the fault to creep again. We suggest that seismic activity will continue to occur near the tip of the northern JVF creeping segment.

Keywords

• Dead Sea Fault
• aseismic deformation
• earthquakes
• transient behavior
• Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)
• Jordan Valley