Real world fracture prediction of fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and one-minute osteoporosis risk test: An 11-year longitudinal study
Yueh-Hsuan Sheng,
Tai-Yin Wu,
Chen-Kun Liaw,
Sheng-Huang Hsiao,
Kuan-Liang Kuo,
Ching-Yao Tsai
Affiliations
Yueh-Hsuan Sheng
Department of Family Medicine, Renai Branch, Taipei City Hospital, No. 10, Sec. 4, Renai Rd., Daan Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan
Tai-Yin Wu
Department of Family Medicine, Zhongxing Branch, Taipei City Hospital, No. 145, Zhengzhou Rd., Datong Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd., Zhongzheng Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Health and Welfare, University of Taipei, No. 101, Sec. 2, Zhongcheng Rd., Shilin Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Corresponding author at: Department of Family Medicine, Zhongxing Branch, Taipei City Hospital, No. 145, Zhengzhou Rd., Datong Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan.
Chen-Kun Liaw
Department of Orthopedics, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, No. 250, Wuxing St., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Orthopedics, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, No. 291, Zhongzheng Rd., Zhonghe Dist., New Taipei City, Taiwan; Research Center of Biomedical Device, College of Biomedical Engineering, Graduate Institute of Biomedical Optomechatronics, Taipei Medical University, No. 250, Wuxing St., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; TMU Biodesign Center, Taipei Medical University, No. 250, Wuxing St., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan
Sheng-Huang Hsiao
Department of Neurosurgery, Taipei City Hospital, Renai Branch, No. 10, Sec. 4, Ren'ai Rd., Da'an Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Psychology, National Chengchi University, No. 64, Sec. 2, Zhinan Rd., Wenshan Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan
Kuan-Liang Kuo
Department of Family Medicine, Renai Branch, Taipei City Hospital, No. 10, Sec. 4, Renai Rd., Daan Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Institute of Biomedical Informatics, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, No. 155, Sec. 2, Linong St., Beitou Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; The Bachelor's Program in Medical Informatics and Innovative Applications, Fu Jen University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, Taiwan
Ching-Yao Tsai
Department of Health and Welfare, University of Taipei, No. 101, Sec. 2, Zhongcheng Rd., Shilin Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Ophthalmology, Taipei City Hospital, No. 145, Zhengzhou Rd., Datong Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Institute of Public Health, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, No. 155, Sec. 2, Linong St., Beitou Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, Taiwan
Introduction: Fractures affect people's quality of life especially in the elders. One of the most important risk factors is osteoporosis. There are many screening tools to predict osteoporosis and fractures. We aimed to compare the predictive validity of three commonly used screening tools: fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and one-minute osteoporosis risk test. Among them, OSTA and one-minute osteoporosis risk test were originally developed to predict osteoporosis risks and FRAX was to predict fracture risks. Methods: This is an 11-year longitudinal study. We enrolled 708 senior people from health examinees in Taiwan in 2010. A standardized questionnaire and blood tests were provided. Annual telephone interview was conducted to assess the real fracture status. We calculated risk scores of FRAX, OSTA, and one-minute osteoporosis risk test and compared with real-world fracture records. Results: The mean age of the participants were 74.9 (SD 6.4). There were 356 (50.3 %) men. From 2010 to 2020, a total of 105 (14.8 %) persons suffered from fractures. Compared to people without fractures, people with fractures had higher FRAX major osteoporotic fracture risk scores (14.0 % ± 7.6 % vs.11.3 % ± 5.7 %), higher hip fracture risk scores, and higher OSTA risk (5.9 % ± 1.4 % vs. 5.3 % ± 1.3 %). Cox regression analysis showed that hazard ratios for fracture of high FRAX risk was 1.53 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.05–2.21), and for high OSTA risk was 1.37 (95 % CI 1.04–1.82). Conclusions: Only OSTA and FRAX scores were satisfactory in predicting 10-year fractures.
