Communications Medicine (Oct 2022)
National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021
- Johannes Bracher,
- Daniel Wolffram,
- Jannik Deuschel,
- Konstantin Görgen,
- Jakob L. Ketterer,
- Alexander Ullrich,
- Sam Abbott,
- Maria V. Barbarossa,
- Dimitris Bertsimas,
- Sangeeta Bhatia,
- Marcin Bodych,
- Nikos I. Bosse,
- Jan Pablo Burgard,
- Lauren Castro,
- Geoffrey Fairchild,
- Jochen Fiedler,
- Jan Fuhrmann,
- Sebastian Funk,
- Anna Gambin,
- Krzysztof Gogolewski,
- Stefan Heyder,
- Thomas Hotz,
- Yuri Kheifetz,
- Holger Kirsten,
- Tyll Krueger,
- Ekaterina Krymova,
- Neele Leithäuser,
- Michael L. Li,
- Jan H. Meinke,
- Błażej Miasojedow,
- Isaac J. Michaud,
- Jan Mohring,
- Pierre Nouvellet,
- Jedrzej M. Nowosielski,
- Tomasz Ozanski,
- Maciej Radwan,
- Franciszek Rakowski,
- Markus Scholz,
- Saksham Soni,
- Ajitesh Srivastava,
- Tilmann Gneiting,
- Melanie Schienle
Affiliations
- Johannes Bracher
- Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- Daniel Wolffram
- Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- Jannik Deuschel
- Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- Konstantin Görgen
- Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- Jakob L. Ketterer
- Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- Alexander Ullrich
- Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
- Sam Abbott
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Maria V. Barbarossa
- Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies
- Dimitris Bertsimas
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Sangeeta Bhatia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College London
- Marcin Bodych
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology
- Nikos I. Bosse
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Jan Pablo Burgard
- Economic and Social Statistics Department, University of Trier
- Lauren Castro
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- Geoffrey Fairchild
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- Jochen Fiedler
- Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics (ITWM)
- Jan Fuhrmann
- Institute for Applied Mathematics, University of Heidelberg
- Sebastian Funk
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Anna Gambin
- Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics, University of Warsaw
- Krzysztof Gogolewski
- Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics, University of Warsaw
- Stefan Heyder
- Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universität Ilmenau
- Thomas Hotz
- Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universität Ilmenau
- Yuri Kheifetz
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig
- Holger Kirsten
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig
- Tyll Krueger
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology
- Ekaterina Krymova
- Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zürich and EPF Lausanne
- Neele Leithäuser
- Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics (ITWM)
- Michael L. Li
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Jan H. Meinke
- Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich
- Błażej Miasojedow
- Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics, University of Warsaw
- Isaac J. Michaud
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- Jan Mohring
- Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics (ITWM)
- Pierre Nouvellet
- School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex
- Jedrzej M. Nowosielski
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw
- Tomasz Ozanski
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology
- Maciej Radwan
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw
- Franciszek Rakowski
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw
- Markus Scholz
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig
- Saksham Soni
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Ajitesh Srivastava
- Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern California
- Tilmann Gneiting
- Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS)
- Melanie Schienle
- Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 2,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 17
Abstract
Bracher et al. compare 15 forecasting models of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Germany and Poland between January and mid-April 2021. Many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead, with ensemble methods showing very good relative performance.
