Discerning Watershed Response to Hydroclimatic Extremes with a Deep Convolutional Residual Regressive Neural Network

Abstract

The impact of climate change continues to manifest itself daily in the form of extreme events and conditions such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and storms. Better forecasting tools are mandatory to calibrate our response to these hazards and help adapt to the planet’s dynamic environment. Here, we present a deep convolutional residual regressive neural network (dcrrnn) platform called Flux to Flow (F2F) for discerning the response of watersheds to water-cycle fluxes and their extremes. We examine four United States drainage basins of varying acreage from smaller to very large (Bear, Colorado, Connecticut, and Mississippi). F2F combines model and ground observations of water-cycle fluxes in the form of surface runoff, subsurface baseflow, and gauged streamflow. We use these time series datasets to simulate, visualize, and analyze the watershed basin response to the varying climates and magnitudes of hydroclimatic fluxes in each river basin. Experiments modulating the time lag between remotely sensed and ground-truth measurements are performed to assess the metrological limits of forecasting with this platform. The resultant mean Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency values are both greater than 90%. Our results show that a hydrological machine learning platform such as F2F can become a powerful resource to simulate and forecast hydroclimatic extremes and the resulting watershed responses and natural hazards in a changing global climate.

Keywords

• water
• climate
• sustainability
• supervised representation learning
• societal considerations