Dynamics and driving factors of the international oil trade network

Abstract

[Objective] Oil is the most critical energy resource, providing essential support for advancing Chinese-style modernization. Research on the dynamic change of the international oil trade network and its driving factors is of significant strategic importance for enhancing the resilience and security of the oil supply chain. [Methods] Based on the global oil trade data from 1992 to 2023, this study employed complex network analysis techniques and the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) analysis method to explore the dynamic change of the topological structure, connectivity, centrality, and geographical distribution characteristics of trade groups in the global oil trade network. The driving factors of international oil trade were analyzed from economic, demographic, technological, geopolitical risk, and geographical distance perspectives. [Results] The international oil market has undergone rapid growth, volatile adjustments, and stabilization at a relatively high level. The network density of the oil trade network remained relatively stable, while the edge-node ratio showed a gradual increasing trend, indicating enhanced connectivity in the global oil market. Simultaneously, the international oil trade exhibited a trend of multipolarization. The oil trade groups have evolved from an initial three-group structure to a four-group structure, with emerging economies playing a more critical role in global oil trade. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the change of oil trade groups. Economic scale, population size, and trade agreements positively drove the change of the oil trade network, while technological advancements and geographical distance had a negative impact. Geopolitical risks, due to oil stockpiling and rising prices, positively influenced the oil trade network. [Conclusion] In response to the rapid change of the global oil market and potential future risks and challenges, countries should enhance their oil reserves to mitigate market uncertainties and “black swan” events; promote diversified trade cooperation to reduce reliance on single supply sources; advance technological innovation, develop clean energy, and optimize energy structures; and strengthen international cooperation to alleviate geopolitical risks and ensure the stability of oil supplies.

Keywords

• oil trade|complex network|energy security|driving factors|qap