Establishment of a predictive model for inpatient sudden cardiac death in a Chinese cardiac department population: a retrospective study

Abstract

Abstract. Background:. Little is known about the risk factors for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the overall hospitalized cardiac department population. This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors and develop a predictive model for SCD in a hospitalized cardiac department population. Methods:. We conducted a retrospective study of patients admitted to the cardiac department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from June 2015 to February 2017. We collected the clinical data from medical records. Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis was carried out to confirm the risk factors for SCD and develop a predictive risk model. The risk score was assessed by the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results:. A total of 262 patients with SCD and 4485 controls were enrolled in our study. Logistic regression modeling identified eight significant risk factors for in-hospital SCD: age, main admitting diagnosis, diabetes, corrected QT interval, QRS duration, ventricular premature beat burden, left ventricular ejection fraction, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. A predictive risk score including these variables showed an AUROC curve of 0.774 (95% confidence interval: 0.744–0.805). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed the chi-square value was 2.527 (P = 0.640). The incidence of in-hospital SCD was 1.3%, 4.1%, and 18.6% for scores of 0 to 2, 3 to 5 and ≥6, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions:. Age, main admitting diagnosis, diabetes, QTc interval, QRS duration, ventricular premature beat burden, left ventricular ejection fraction, and estimated glomerular filtration rate are factors related to in-hospital SCD in a hospitalized cardiac department population. We developed a predictive risk score including these factors that could identify patients who are predisposed to in-hospital SCD.