Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence

Abstract

This paper examines new evidence from observational and detection and attribution studies of changes in extreme precipitation in China since the early 1960s. We have also designed a series of sensitivity tests to explore the robustness of detection and attribution results to the differences in sample size, in extreme precipitation index, and in data processing procedure. Our analyses used the most recent update of observational records as well as simulations conducted with the climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Based on the existing studies and our additional analyses, we found that human influence is detectable in extreme precipitation in China regardless of the period, extreme precipitation index, or data treatment considered, in both China as a whole and in northern and southern China separately. We also found, as is often encountered in detection and attribution studies, it is difficult to separate the contribution from anthropogenic forcing from that of natural external forcing, and it is also challenging to decompose the anthropogenic component into a greenhouse gas forcing component and a component that reflects other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominantly, aerosols).

Keywords

• precipitation extremes
• detection and attribution
• anthropogenic forcing
• greenhouse gas forcing
• CMIP6