Modelling multiple time-scales with flexible parametric survival models

Abstract

Abstract Background There are situations when we need to model multiple time-scales in survival analysis. A usual approach in this setting would involve fitting Cox or Poisson models to a time-split dataset. However, this leads to large datasets and can be computationally intensive when model fitting, especially if interest lies in displaying how the estimated hazard rate or survival change along multiple time-scales continuously. Methods We propose to use flexible parametric survival models on the log hazard scale as an alternative method when modelling data with multiple time-scales. By choosing one of the time-scales as reference, and rewriting other time-scales as a function of this reference time-scale, users can avoid time-splitting of the data. Result Through case-studies we demonstrate the usefulness of this method and provide examples of graphical representations of estimated hazard rates and survival proportions. The model gives nearly identical results to using a Poisson model, without requiring time-splitting. Conclusion Flexible parametric survival models are a powerful tool for modelling multiple time-scales. This method does not require splitting the data into small time-intervals, and therefore saves time, helps avoid technological limitations and reduces room for error.

Keywords

• Multiple time-scales
• Flexible parametric survival models
• Time-varying covariate
• Matched cohort
• Cohort studies
• Epidemiological methods