Global, regional, and national burden of esophageal cancer using the 2019 global burden of disease study

Abstract

Abstract Esophageal cancer, with its aggressive nature and high mortality, poses diverse epidemiological challenges worldwide. Over the past three decades, esophageal cancer has exhibited a substantial global burden, marked by a significant increase in absolute numbers, contrasting with a decline in age-standardized metrics. Prevalence nearly doubled, reaching 0.961 million in 2019, while the age-standardized rate (ASR) decreased to 11.6 per 100,000 cases. New incidence cases surged by 67.07%, yet the age-standardized incidence rate reduced to 6.5 per 100,000 cases. Deaths increased to 0.498 million, with a decline in age-standardized mortality to 6.1 per 100,000 cases. Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rose to 11.67 million, but the ASR decreased to 139.8 per 100,000 cases. Gender-specific analysis revealed consistently higher rates in males, with increasing gaps over time. Correlations with SDI indicated a negative association, and frontier analysis underscored the impact of socio-economic progress on disease control. Projections suggest a continued rise in prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs, with gender-specific variations. The research underscores the importance of continued efforts in public health and medical research to adapt to and manage the changing landscape of esophageal cancer globally.

Keywords

• Esophageal cancer
• The global burden of disease study
• Average annual percentage change
• Frontier analysis
• The bayesian age-period-cohort model