Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction in Sefiddasht-Borujen Basin Using Ca-Markov

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the land cover changes in the basin of Sefiddasht-Borujen using remote sensing Using remote sensing data, land cover maps of satellite images of 1998, 2009, and 2018 were prepared and classified. Then, using the image differencing method, land cover changes for the time periods of 1998 to 2018 were detected. Finally, predicted land cover changes were investigated in each land cover using a CA-Markov model. To predict the probable changes for the year of 2028, the 2018 land cover was modeled using 1998-2009 images by applying of the CA-Markov method of change detection. Next, the resulted of modeled 2018 land cover map were compared with the ground truth map of this year. The results of both maps showed relatively similarity and there was a slight difference between these predicted and classified images of 2018. Therefore, this method was used to predict 2028 land cover image too. The results of change detection for the years 1998 to 2018 indicates the reduction of 8339 hectares of agricultural lands in the study area, as well as 11824 ha from rangelands. Conversely, the bare land increased 14601 ha. According to predicted map for 2028, the largest incremental change in the bare land will be 16476 ha. Estimates show that 8664 hectares of these lands will be from agricultural lands, but approximately 8580 ha will be transformed into the bare land and about 224 ha to residential-industrial lands. Rangelands also will be reduced by13055 ha including 11663 ha to bare land and 1069 ha will be transformed into residential-industrial areas. 16476 ha will be added to bare land and 1420 ha to residential-industrial areas. The results of the present study can be used for future planning for the study area.

Keywords

• remote sensing
• desertification
• rangeland
• agricultural lands
• chaharmahal va bakhtiari province