Nature Communications (Oct 2023)

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

  • M. Otiende,
  • A. Nyaguara,
  • C. Bottomley,
  • D. Walumbe,
  • G. Mochamah,
  • D. Amadi,
  • C. Nyundo,
  • E. W. Kagucia,
  • A. O. Etyang,
  • I. M. O. Adetifa,
  • S. P. C. Brand,
  • E. Maitha,
  • E. Chondo,
  • E. Nzomo,
  • R. Aman,
  • M. Mwangangi,
  • P. Amoth,
  • K. Kasera,
  • W. Ng’ang’a,
  • E. Barasa,
  • B. Tsofa,
  • J. Mwangangi,
  • P. Bejon,
  • A. Agweyu,
  • T. N. Williams,
  • J. A. G. Scott

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42615-6
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 14, no. 1
pp. 1 – 9

Abstract

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Abstract The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1–14 years (−7.7%, 95% PI −20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.