Accuracy of NVP score as a predictor of gastroesophageal varices in primary biliary cholangitis

Abstract

Introduction and Objective: The presence of gastro-oesophageal varices (GOV) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) denotes a poor prognosis and may precede jaundice and cirrhosis. The appropriate time to begin screening with oesphageo-gastro-duodenoscopy (OGD) is controversial. Recently, non-invasive tools such as GOV predictors in CBP, such as New Castle Varices PBC Score (NVP Score), are cost-effective. This study aimed to determine the accuracy of NVP Score as a predictive tool for GOV in PBC patients. Materials and Methods: A Cross-sectional, retrospective, observational study of 47 PBV patients who underwent OGD as screening. NVP score was calculated and its accuracy, p-value and AUC were determined. Results: 47 patients were included; 43 (91.4%) were female, with a median age of 59 years. Initially, 70% of PBC patients had GOV. NVP Score was calculated, with a cut-off of 0.3, establishing sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 50%, PPV of 82.5% and NPV of 100%, p=0.05. Discussion: GOV prevalence in our population study is high (70%) even in early disease stages due to the presinusoidal component of portal hypertension and other factors. This evidence shows the importance of early GOV diagnosis in PBC patients, using non-invasive tools as a cost-effective strategy. Conclusions: NVP score is a useful non-invasive tool that accurately predicts the presence of GOV in PBC patients. Funding: The resources used in this study were from the hospital without any additional financing Declaration of interest: The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.