Short-term PV power prediction based on meteorological similarity days and SSA-BiLSTM

Abstract

Accurate short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting can reduce the un- certainty of PV power generation, which is crucial for grid operation as well as energy dispatch. Considering the influence of seasonal and meteorological factors on short-term PV power prediction, a short-term PV power predic- tion method based on meteorological similarity day and sparrow search algo- rithm and bi-directional long and short-term memory network combination (SSA-BiLSTM) is proposed. Firstly, the correlation between meteorological factors and PV power generation is calculated by using Pearson coefficients, getting the strongly correlated meteorological factors affecting PV power generation; afterwards,the historical data of the strongly correlated meteorological factors are clustered by fuzzy C-means clustering to achieve meteorological similar day clustering; then, the best similar day is selected from the meteorological similar day according to the test day seasonal features and meteorological data, and Forming a training set with historical data, and training the original BiLSTM network. the SSA algorithm was used to find the optimal BiLSTM network parameters. Finally, Using the optimal parameters construct BiLSTM network to achieve short-term PV power prediction. The experiments were conducted with historical data from a PV power plant in Xinjiang, and also compared with existing prediction algorithms.The results show that the accuracy of PV power prediction in different weather conditions is 33.1 %, 31.9 % and 24.1 % higher than that under the same intelligent optimization algorithm and different neural networks, the accuracy of PV power prediction in different weather conditions is 27.9 %, 24.7 % and 18.0 % higher than that under the different intelligent algorithms and same neural network. Therefore, the algorithm in this paper has better accuracy in short-term PV power prediction under different seasons and different weather conditions.

Keywords

• Short-term PV power forecasting
• Fuzzy C-means clustering
• Seasonal features
• SSA-BiLSTM