International Probabilistic Workshop 2022

Abstract

These are the proceedings of the 19th International Probabilistic Workshop, which was held in Stellenbosch, South Africa on 8-9 September 2022. The event was co-hosted by the Department of Civil Engineering at the Stellenbosch University and the Klokner Institute of the Czech Technical University. Since its inception, IPW has aimed to provide a suitable platform for sharing ideas and knowledge in the field of probabilistic reliability and risk assessment and has been hosted by many European countries, such as Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. This was the first time IPW took place outside Europe. The overarching theme of IPW 2022 is the Assessment of existing structures with the following sub-topics: • Models for resistances and load effects • Uncertainty quantification • Service life estimates • Risk acceptance criteria • Optimisation and decision making The workshop offered an excellent opportunity to engage in scientific debate, exchange knowledge, connect with colleagues, and also showcased the scenery of the Cape Winelands. The technical programme included five keynote lectures presented by distinguished experts: • Colin Caprani critically compared causal statistical inference with the approaches utilising artificial intelligence and machine learning. • Milan Holický discussed the reliability of structures stricken by a tornado. • Johan Retief focused on the specific issues of assessment of existing structures when considering the climate change effects. • Peter Tanner discussed the differences between the assessment of existing structures and structural design from the perspective of practical applications, focusing on the required level of information and its updating through the process. • Sebastian Thöns integrated the decision analysis method into structural reliability assessment and demonstrated how expected utilities can be evaluated before the implementation of structural interventions. The presenters of peer-reviewed papers at the conference came from 11 countries from three continents (Africa, Australia, and Europe), delivering a further 28 contributions, which covered a broad range of topics, including reliability of existing buildings and bridges, uncertainty quantification, durability analysis, statistical treatment of data, environmental effects, risk assessment and cost optimisation, applications of advanced techniques in the assessment of existing structures, information about developments of new codes of practice, and the difference between the assessment of existing structures and structural design. All conference papers were peer reviewed by at least two independent anonymous reviewers, with the review process supervised and coordinated by three experts in the field (listed below). Organising institutions: Stellenbosch University is one the most prestigious universities in South Africa and its students add to the exciting life of the town. Starting out from humble beginnings in April 1918, Stellenbosch University today is home to ten faculties, a vibrant and cosmopolitan community of more than 30 000 students and 3000 staff, spread over five campuses. The Civil Engineering Department within the Faculty of Engineering is home to 26 full-time lecturing staff members, 500 undergraduate and 200 postgraduate students. Klokner Institute was founded in 1921 as a part of the Czech Technical University in Prague (established in 1707). Within its research, experimental, and educational activities, the Institute mainly focuses on the theory of structural reliability; experimental verification, surveys and monitoring of existing structures and bridges; mechanics of composite materials and development and verification of new concrete technologies and new building materials; and degradation of concrete and masonry structures. Research results of the Klokner Institute are being systematically implemented in civil engineering structures, mechanical, chemical, and power engineering. The Institute is a leading institution in national and international standardization in the construction industry. Scientific comittee: Michael Beer Thomas Braml Daniel Cantero Colin Caprani Joan Casas Robby Caspeele Peter Day Dimitris Diamantidis Michael Faber Oliver Fisher Hooman Ghasemi Michel Ghosn Ramon Hingorani Milan Holicky Manfred Keuser Jochen Kohler Petr Konecny Marc Maes Giuseppe Mancini Jose Matos Christina McLeod Lukas Novak Eugene O’Brien Benedict Olalusi Daniel Oliveira Johan Retief Chris Roth Arpad Rozsas John Sørensen Raphael Steenbergen Mark Stewart Daniel Straub Alfred Strauss Bruno Sudret Peter Tanner Sebastian Thons Dimitri Val Ruben van Coile Pieter van Gelder Local organizing comittee: Roman Lenner Nico de Koker Celeste Viljoen Miroslav Sykora Dirk Proske Coordinators of the peer review process: Miroslav Sykora Roman Lenner Nico de Koker Language editing: Reviewers