Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study

Abstract

Crop yields are threatened by global climate change. Maize has high water requirements, and precipitation fluctuations can impact its yield. In this study, we used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate maize yields in eight northeastern U.S. states. We used precipitation fluctuations and the coefficient of variation (CV) of yield as indicators to construct a vulnerability curve for the CV of yield and precipitation fluctuations. We then evaluated the vulnerability of maize yields under precipitation fluctuations in the region. We obtained the following results: (1) the fitted vulnerability curves were classified into three categories (positive slope, negative slope, and insignificant fit), of which the first category accounted for about 92.7%, indicating that the CV of maize yield was positively correlated with precipitation fluctuations in most parts of the study area; and (2) the CV of maize yield under 11 precipitation fluctuation scenarios was mapped to express the CV at the spatial level, and the maize yield in Connecticut and Maryland proved to be the most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations. This study provided a theoretical and experimental basis for the prevention of maize yield risk under fluctuating precipitation conditions.

Keywords

• precipitation fluctuation
• vulnerability curve
• maize yield
• EPIC model
• risk assessment