Estimando o orçamento de resultado em uma empresa varejista: uma abordagem por meio de vetor autorregressivo– VAR

Abstract

The aim in this paper was to use vector autoregression (VAR) in order to get support for the elaboration of the results budget of small and medium sized firms. Quantitative and exploratory research was used. The model was applied at a mid-sized retailer, and the variables used were net sales, cost of goods sold, operating expenses and financial results. Data were collected monthly between January 2007 and December 2013. A graph was generated for the response function of the impulses in the variables. The forecasting was performed for the elaboration of the 2013 budget. Finally, the estimated result was compared to the real result of the firm. Based on this, we observed that the VAR model behaved efficiently to aid in elaborating the results budget for the firm analyzed in this study.