Modeling platform to assess the effectiveness of single and integrated Ixodes scapularis tick control methods

Abstract

Abstract Background Lyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic. Methods We propose a platform to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve. Results Simulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes–deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications. Conclusions Computer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Lyme disease
• Tick control
• Interventions
• Effectiveness
• Simulation
• Mathematical model