Análise da elasticidade de transmissão de preços no mercado brasileiro de algodão

Abstract

The article analyzes the elasticity of price transmission in the Brazilian cotton market from January, 1985, to December, 2000. For this purpose, the Dickey-Fuller Augmented (ADF) unit root test, the Johansen cointegration test, the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), and the exogenicity test are applied. The results show that the One Price Law does not apply to the Brazilian cotton market, because variations in cotton international prices are not fully transmitted to domestic prices in Brazil in the long run. The exogenicity test shows that domestic cotton prices in Brazil do not react to changes in the long run equilibrium relationship. Possibly, these results are directly associated with government intervention in the sector (1985 to 1988) as well as to the credit conditions available for cotton acquisition in the international market between 1990 and 1997.

Keywords

• algodão, Lei do Preço Único, co-integração, comércio internacional, transmissão de preço.