Machine learning predictive modeling of the persistence of post-Covid19 disorders: Loss of smell and taste as case studies

Abstract

The worldwide health crisis triggered by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has resulted in an extensive variety of symptoms in people who have been infected, the most prevalent disorders of which are loss of smell and taste senses. In some patients, these disorders might occasionally last for several months and can strongly affect patients’ quality of life. The COVID-19-related loss of taste and smell does not presently have a particular therapy. However, with the help of an early prediction of these disorders, healthcare providers can direct the patients to control these symptoms and prevent complications by following special procedures. The purpose of this research is to develop a machine learning (ML) model that can predict the occurrence and persistence of post-COVID-19-related loss of smell and taste abnormalities. In this study, we used our dataset to describe the symptoms, functioning, and disability of 413 verified COVID-19 patients. In order to prepare accurate classification models, we combined several ML algorithms, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM). The accuracy of the loss of taste model was 91.5 % with an area-under-cure (AUC) of 0.94, and the accuracy of the loss of smell model was 95 % with an AUC of 0.97. Our proposed modelling framework can be utilized by hospitals experts to assess these post-COVID-19 disorders in the early stages, which supports the development of treatment strategies.

Keywords

• Post-COVID-19 symptoms
• Loss of taste
• Loss of smell
• Machine learning
• Predictive models