Impact of changes in land use and climate on the Runoff in the coastal areas of South China—A case study of the Nanliujiang catchment

Abstract

The intense climate changes and human activities have a great impact on the variation of the runoff of the coastal area of South China. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to quantify the impact of land use and climate change of the Nanliujiang catchment on the runoff by setting 4 scenarios of land-use and climate change. The results show the runoff of the simulated and measured values had a similar trend. The value of relevant coefficient is above 0.8, and the value of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is about 0.8, which indicate that the SWAT model is fit for the study area. The annual average runoff depth during the period from 1995 to 2013 has increased by 53.5mm, of which the land use change resulted in 13.0mm increase on the annual average runoff depth while the climate change resulted in 40.9mm increase on the annual average runoff depth, therefore, the climate change has greater effect then the land use change. This work will delineate some helpful information for the water resources management as well as ecological protection in the coastal area of South China.