Communications Engineering (Dec 2024)

Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation

  • Aaron Sonabend-W,
  • Carl Elkin,
  • Thomas Dean,
  • John Dudley,
  • Noman Ali,
  • Jill Blickstein,
  • Erica Brand,
  • Brian Broshears,
  • Sixing Chen,
  • Zebediah Engberg,
  • Mark Galyen,
  • Scott Geraedts,
  • Nita Goyal,
  • Rebecca Grenham,
  • Ulrike Hager,
  • Deborah Hecker,
  • Marco Jany,
  • Kevin McCloskey,
  • Joe Ng,
  • Brian Norris,
  • Frank Opel,
  • Juliet Rothenberg,
  • Tharun Sankar,
  • Dinesh Sanekommu,
  • Aaron Sarna,
  • Ole Schütt,
  • Marc Shapiro,
  • Rachel Soh,
  • Christopher Van Arsdale,
  • John C. Platt

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00329-7
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 3, no. 1
pp. 1 – 7

Abstract

Read online

Abstract Contrails, formed by aircraft engines, are a major component of aviation’s impact on anthropogenic climate change. Contrail avoidance is a potential option to mitigate this warming effect, however, uncertainties surrounding operational constraints and accurate formation prediction make it unclear whether it is feasible. Here we address this gap with a feasibility test through a randomized controlled trial of contrail avoidance in commercial aviation at the per-flight level. Predictions for regions prone to contrail formation came from a physics-based simulation model and a machine learning model. Participating pilots made altitude adjustments based on contrail formation predictions for flights assigned to the treatment group. Using satellite-based imagery we observed 64% fewer contrails in these flights relative to the control group flights, a statistically significant reduction (p = 0.0331). Our targeted per-flight intervention allowed the airline to track their expected vs actual fuel usage, we found that there is a 2% increase in fuel per adjusted flight. This study demonstrates that per-flight detectable contrail avoidance is feasible in commercial aviation.