Ziyuan Kexue (Jun 2024)
The impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency
Abstract
[Objective] This study aimed to explore the mechanism of impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency in China under the background of population shrinkage. [Methods] Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019, we empirically tested the impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency and the moderating effect of industrial structure adjustment by constructing a theoretical analysis framework and a dynamic panel model. [Results] (1) Labor force shrinkage has a significant negative impact on urban land use efficiency. The more the labor force shrinks, the lower the urban land use efficiency. As a key factor affecting the spatial development of cities, the loss of labor has not only slowed down the expansion of built-up land but has also led to the decline of some towns, which in turn affects the productivity of urban land. (2) Heterogeneity analysis shows that there is regional and temporal heterogeneity in the impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency. The negative effect of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency mainly occurs in the eastern and central regions. Compared with the period before the construction of new urbanization, the negative effect of labor force contraction after the construction of new urbanization is significantly weaker. (3) Industrial structure adjustment has a significant negative moderating effect, and both advanced industrial structure and industrial structure rationalization can have a positive impact on the inhibiting effect of labor force contraction. [Conclusion] Labor force shrinkage has a significant inhibitory effect on urban land use efficiency. However, the restructuring of industries has helped to ameliorate this negative effect. Therefore, it is recommended that labor force shrinking areas actively adjust their industrial structure to cope with the negative impact of labor force shrinking on the sustainable use of urban land resources and high-quality development.
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