Spotting Error Patterns in Input–Output Projections Using Location Quotients

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) stated by the United Nations (UN) constitute a universal agenda committed to human rights. In this context, mathematics can perform a fundamental role. Exploring possible contributions to these goals could be considered an interesting approach. Input–output (IO) tables provide detailed information for socio-economic quantifications. Thus, they allow for more precise policy decision-making and application in the SDG strategy. However, the smaller the subnational unit to be considered, the less statistical information that is available. Survey-based IO tables with large product/industry disaggregation are seldom published. Therefore, non-survey methods to estimate subnational IO tables based on the national are needed. These methodologies should yield optimal results. In the present investigation, different formulations for these non-survey regionalization methods are analyzed. The work focuses on the methodologies based on location quotients (LQ). As a result, some error patterns associated with current formulations present in literature are described. A slight refinement of these methodologies is proposed in order to improve the estimation’s accuracy.

Keywords

• regional input–output tables
• location quotients
• non-survey
• 2D-<i>LQ</i>
• <i>AFLQ</i>