Impacts of ice-nucleating particles on cirrus clouds and radiation derived from global model simulations with MADE3 in EMAC

Abstract

Atmospheric aerosols can act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and influence the formation and the microphysical properties of cirrus clouds, resulting in distinct climate effects. We employ a global aerosol–climate model, including a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme and a parameterization for aerosol-induced ice formation in cirrus clouds, to quantify the climate impact of INPs on cirrus clouds (simulated period 2001–2010). The model considers mineral dust, soot, crystalline ammonium sulfate, and glassy organics as INPs in the cirrus regime. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to analyse various aspects of the simulated INP–cirrus effect regarding (i) the ice-nucleating potential of the INPs, (ii) the inclusion of ammonium sulfate and organic particles as INPs in the model, and (iii) the model representations of vertical updraughts. The resulting global radiative forcing of the total INP–cirrus effect, considering all different INP types, assuming a smaller and a larger ice-nucleating potential of INPs, to explore the range of possible forcings due to uncertainties in the freezing properties of INPs, is simulated as −28 and −55 mW m−2, respectively. While the simulated impact of glassy organic INPs is mostly small and not statistically significant, ammonium sulfate INPs contribute a considerable radiative forcing, which is nearly as large as the combined effect of mineral dust and soot INPs. Additionally, the anthropogenic INP–cirrus effect is analysed considering the difference between present-day (2014) and pre-industrial conditions (1750) and amounts to −29 mW m−2, assuming a larger ice-nucleating potential of INPs. In a further sensitivity experiment we analyse the effect of highly efficient INPs proposed for cirrus cloud seeding as a means to reduce global warming by climate engineering. However, the results indicate that this approach risks an overseeding of cirrus clouds and often results in positive radiative forcings of up to 86 mW m−2 depending on number concentration of seeded INPs. Idealized experiments with prescribed vertical velocities highlight the crucial role of the model dynamics for the simulated INP–cirrus effects. For example, resulting forcings increase about 1 order of magnitude (−42 to −340 mW m−2) when increasing the prescribed vertical velocity (from 1 to 50 cm s−1). The large discrepancy in the magnitude of the simulated INP–cirrus effect between different model studies emphasizes the need for future detailed analyses and efforts to reduce this uncertainty and constrain the resulting climate impact of INPs.