Municipal Economic-Agricultural Risk Facing A2 Scenario of Climate Change in the Avocado Producing Region of Michoacan

Abstract

Michoacan’s avocado region accounts for 57% of the value of Michoacan’s agricultural production, and only avocado production contributes 4.2% of Michoacan’s GDP and 93% of its national exports. Climate change poses a threat to agriculture in general and it is worth noting the importance of this region. The present research aims to evaluate the economic-agricultural risk in the avocado producing region of Michoacan, from the detection of climatic variability, as a sign of climate change, through the use of scenarios and vulnerability indexes. For this, a methodology was designed that used three instruments: 1) climate change scenario A2 with LARS-GW, for 2025-2075; 2) RH-Test software for precipitation trends; and 3) construction of an economic-agricultural risk index. The results show the presence climatic change signal in avocado region; like a trend to the reduction of precipitation and increase of temperatures. It also shows the degree of municipal vulnerability and risk in the region for the municipal economy linked to agriculture in relation to climate change.

Keywords

• Cambio climático
• vulnerabilidad agrícola
• región aguacatera
• escenarios climáticos