Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant and Effect of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

In British Columbia, Canada, initial growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was slower than that reported in other jurisdictions. Delta became the dominant variant (>50% prevalence) within ≈7–13 weeks of first detection in regions within the United Kingdom and United States. In British Columbia, it remained at <10% of weekly incident COVID-19 cases for 13 weeks after first detection on March 21, 2021, eventually reaching dominance after 17 weeks. We describe the growth of Delta variant cases in British Columbia during March 1–June 30, 2021, and apply retrospective counterfactual modeling to examine factors for the initially low COVID-19 case rate after Delta introduction, such as vaccination coverage and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Growth of COVID-19 cases in the first 3 months after Delta emergence was likely limited in British Columbia because additional nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented to reduce levels of contact at the end of March 2021, soon after variant emergence.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 variant
• SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant
• communicable disease control
• disease transmission