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System dynamics modeling of public health services provided by China CDC to control infectious and endemic diseases in China

Infection and Drug Resistance. 2019;Volume 12:613-625


Journal Homepage

Journal Title: Infection and Drug Resistance

ISSN: 1178-6973 (Online)

Publisher: Dove Medical Press

LCC Subject Category: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases

Country of publisher: United Kingdom

Language of fulltext: English

Full-text formats available: PDF, HTML



Li M

Yu W

Tian W

Ge Y

Liu Y

Ding T

Zhang L


Blind peer review

Editorial Board

Instructions for authors

Time From Submission to Publication: 16 weeks


Abstract | Full Text

Meina Li,1,* Wenya Yu,1,* Wei Tian,2,* Yang Ge,3 Yuan Liu,1 Tao Ding,1 Lulu Zhang1 1Department of Military Health Service Management, College of Military Health Service Management, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China; 2Medical Care Department, Dalian Rehabilitation Center of PLA, Dalian, China; 3School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Infectious and endemic diseases are a serious public health concern worldwide, and their prevention and treatment are globally controversial. This study aimed to establish an system dynamics (SD) model to analyze the factors influencing public health services provided by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) to implement infectious and endemic disease control in China, by establishing more effective interventions to provide public health services and thus achieving the goal of controlling infectious and endemic diseases. Materials and methods: An SD model was constructed using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention experiments were performed using the SD model, which reflected the influences on disease control by adjusting the governmental investment and compensation level for public health products. Results: The experimental results showed that increasing the governmental investment in China CDC and compensation level for public health products will significantly increase the public health product rate provided by China CDC. Discussion: Problems with infectious and endemic disease prevention and treatment are the result of the system’s incomplete functioning and limited health resources. To address the current problems and improve the system, the government should increase its investment in the public health service system and improve the compensation system to ensure smooth implementation of infectious and endemic disease prevention and treatment and, ultimately, improve public health in China. Keywords: epidemic model, transmission, spread, epidemiology, public health, system dynamics, disease management