Spatial Temporal Analysis of Freight Flow through Indian Major Seaport System

Abstract

This paper analyzed the space time interactions among the freight flows through major Indian ports. Freight flow data at regular intervals in the form of spatial time series were collected for the twelve major ports located along the east and west coast of India. The system of freight flows was modeled through interactions both in time and space dimensions as a multivariate stochastic process. Effect of the neighbor port freight on a subject port was analyzed to understand the degree of dependency among the competing/non-competing ports. Demand elasticity analysis suggested that ports are more sensitive to changes in their own demand over time than the corresponding spatial changes indicating bulk of the demand dependency on hinterland economic activity. Interestingly, only two ports are found to be competing with each other as they share common hinterland. In general, it can be inferred that the inter-port relationship within Indian major port system is complimentary or co-operative. Proposed models can be used for assessing the impact of freight flow changes from one port to the nearest neighboring port. Study findings will help port authorities and policy makers for holistic development of port system by making right investments in required locations to promote balanced development. It has also implications towards formulating policies on port development considering Government of India's preferred mode of choice for infrastructure development is PPP, and policy formulation for this mode of development is required to address competition concerns considering the high sunk cost associated with ports development. Keywords: Seaport, Freight flow, Space time model, Demand elasticity, India