Nauka ta progres transportu (Feb 2016)
EXPRESS METHOD OF ESTIMATION OF THE POTENTIAL TERRITORIAL RISK IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS ON TRANSPORT
Abstract
Purpose. The present research is aimed to the development of a method to assess the potential territorial risk in accidents on the railways, which takes into account the specificity of the chemically hazardous substances emission in emergency situations during their transportation. Methodology. The basis of the proposed method is numerical modeling of the transfer process is chemically dangerous substances in the atmosphere. The basis of the numerical model is the equation of convective-diffusion transfer of chemically hazardous substances. This equation takes into account the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances due to wind and atmospheric diffusion. For the numerical integration of the equations of transfer of chemically hazardous substances in the atmosphere is applied an implicit finite-difference scheme of splitting. Based on the constructed numerical model was developed method for the assessment of potential territorial risk and generated code in algorithmic language Fortran. The developed method of spatio-temporal risk assessment takes into account: the territorial probable weather situations; emission mode of chemically hazardous substances; emission power; the movement of the source of emission. A computational experiment to assess the level of air pollution above the village Sinelnikovo during the emergency leak of ammonia was conducted. Findings. The proposed method allows calculating quicklythe potential risk of the leakage of chemically hazardous substances on the basis of the calculation of the level of pollution in different meteosituation. The method allows determining the size of the zone of toxic casualties and assessing the level of risk of accidents in railway transport. Using the developed numerical model evaluated the assessment of risk of casualties in the residential area of the village Sinelnikovo. Originality. The scientists established the method for the assessment of potential territorial risk, based on the numerical modeling of air pollution. The calculation of potential risk to residential areas of the village Sinelnikovo was executed. Practical value. The developed method of assessing risk potential can be used not only for solving problems of this class to objects of railway transport but also for other chemically dangerous objects. By using the developed method was evaluated potential risk to the village Sinelnikovo in the event of accidental emission of ammonia.
