Impacts of climate change on crop growing season characteristics in Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding the likely impact of climate change on crop growth is very important to identify possible areas of intervention and consider climate-related impacts. This study aimed to investigate the future impact of climate change on the crop growing season in the Tigray region. Five global climate models under two representative concentration paths were projected for future periods using a delta downscaling approach. Results indicate that projections of rainfall showed an increase in annual and summer (Kiremt) rainfall at most stations. However, the Belg rainfall season had a declining trend except under RCP4.5 in a mid-term period that showed positive changes at most stations. On the contrary, projections of maximum and minimum temperatures indicated a continuous increase. In line with the increase in temperatures, the reference evapotranspiration consistently increased at all stations. Cumulatively, late onset and early cessation of rainfall are observed, accompanied by a 5.5–19% reduction in the length of the growing period (LGP), exacerbating the current short LGP in the study area and affecting the proper growth and maturity of major crops. The findings of this study have global implications in that similar areas may be alarmed to get prepared ahead and develop adaptive and sustainable crop production strategies. HIGHLIGHTS Future climate variables are expected to include more warming and larger changes in rainfall patterns.; Projections of the growing season in the main rainy season indicated a tendency for late onset and early cessation. These changes will present a challenge to crop production in the study area as well as in other similar areas.;

Keywords

• climate change
• crop growing season
• evapotranspiration
• northern ethiopia
• tigray