Hydrogeospatial analysis and predictive modelling of the dynamics of the Amu Darya River basin under evolving climate scenarios

Abstract

This paper conducts an analysis of the hydrogeospatial features and predictive modelling in the Amu Darya River basin in Turkmenistan, considering the evolving climate conditions. It emphasizes the notable influence of climate change on the water resources in the area, characterized by escalating temperatures, reduced precipitation, and heightened aridity. The primary aim of the investigation is to scrutinize the dynamics of the basin by examining crucial climatic elements such as precipitation, temperature, and aridity. The study encompasses three key aspects: evaluation of the present water resources, scrutiny of hydrological patterns over a 50-year period, and formulation of a predictive model for river flow until 2050. Turkmenistan experienced an elevation of 0.6°C in average temperature from 1986 to 2015 compared to 1881-1960, particularly notable during the summer. This rise in temperature was concomitant with a 10% reduction in precipitation across the region. Projections utilizing the REMO 04/06 model indicate a projected 1.5°C temperature increase by 2050, alongside minor modifications in precipitation but increased variability. Consequently, the runoff in the Amu Darya River could see a substantial decline, especially during the summer months. Through the amalgamation of meteorological, hydrological, and satellite data, the study harnessed the WEAP modelling tool to craft an innovative predictive hydrological model. This pioneering analysis furnishes invaluable insights into the repercussions of climate change on water resources in the Amu Darya River basin, presenting pioneering estimations of the impact of climatic factors on water availability.