The Lancet Regional Health. Americas (Jan 2023)
Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model studyResearch in context
- Rebecca K. Borchering,
- Luke C. Mullany,
- Emily Howerton,
- Matteo Chinazzi,
- Claire P. Smith,
- Michelle Qin,
- Nicholas G. Reich,
- Lucie Contamin,
- John Levander,
- Jessica Kerr,
- J. Espino,
- Harry Hochheiser,
- Kaitlin Lovett,
- Matt Kinsey,
- Kate Tallaksen,
- Shelby Wilson,
- Lauren Shin,
- Joseph C. Lemaitre,
- Juan Dent Hulse,
- Joshua Kaminsky,
- Elizabeth C. Lee,
- Alison L. Hill,
- Jessica T. Davis,
- Kunpeng Mu,
- Xinyue Xiong,
- Ana Pastore y Piontti,
- Alessandro Vespignani,
- Ajitesh Srivastava,
- Przemyslaw Porebski,
- Srini Venkatramanan,
- Aniruddha Adiga,
- Bryan Lewis,
- Brian Klahn,
- Joseph Outten,
- Benjamin Hurt,
- Jiangzhuo Chen,
- Henning Mortveit,
- Amanda Wilson,
- Madhav Marathe,
- Stefan Hoops,
- Parantapa Bhattacharya,
- Dustin Machi,
- Shi Chen,
- Rajib Paul,
- Daniel Janies,
- Jean-Claude Thill,
- Marta Galanti,
- Teresa Yamana,
- Sen Pei,
- Jeffrey Shaman,
- Guido España,
- Sean Cavany,
- Sean Moore,
- Alex Perkins,
- Jessica M. Healy,
- Rachel B. Slayton,
- Michael A. Johansson,
- Matthew Biggerstaff,
- Katriona Shea,
- Shaun A. Truelove,
- Michael C. Runge,
- Cécile Viboud,
- Justin Lessler
Affiliations
- Rebecca K. Borchering
- The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Corresponding author.
- Luke C. Mullany
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA
- Emily Howerton
- The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Matteo Chinazzi
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- Claire P. Smith
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Michelle Qin
- Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Nicholas G. Reich
- University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
- Lucie Contamin
- University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- John Levander
- University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- Jessica Kerr
- University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- J. Espino
- University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- Harry Hochheiser
- University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- Kaitlin Lovett
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA
- Matt Kinsey
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA
- Kate Tallaksen
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA
- Shelby Wilson
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA
- Lauren Shin
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA
- Joseph C. Lemaitre
- École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Juan Dent Hulse
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Joshua Kaminsky
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Elizabeth C. Lee
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Alison L. Hill
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Jessica T. Davis
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- Kunpeng Mu
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- Xinyue Xiong
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- Ana Pastore y Piontti
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- Alessandro Vespignani
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- Ajitesh Srivastava
- University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Przemyslaw Porebski
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Srini Venkatramanan
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Aniruddha Adiga
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Bryan Lewis
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Brian Klahn
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Joseph Outten
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Benjamin Hurt
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Jiangzhuo Chen
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Henning Mortveit
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Amanda Wilson
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Madhav Marathe
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Stefan Hoops
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Parantapa Bhattacharya
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Dustin Machi
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Shi Chen
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA
- Rajib Paul
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA
- Daniel Janies
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA
- Jean-Claude Thill
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA
- Marta Galanti
- Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Teresa Yamana
- Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Sen Pei
- Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Jeffrey Shaman
- Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Guido España
- University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
- Sean Cavany
- University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
- Sean Moore
- University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
- Alex Perkins
- University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
- Jessica M. Healy
- CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Rachel B. Slayton
- CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Michael A. Johansson
- CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Matthew Biggerstaff
- CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Katriona Shea
- The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Shaun A. Truelove
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Michael C. Runge
- U.S. Geological Survey, Laurel, MD, USA
- Cécile Viboud
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Justin Lessler
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 17
p. 100398
Abstract
Summary: Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5–11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5–11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5–11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880–0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834–0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797–1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5–11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).
