Forecasting Innovation Risks of Machine-Building Enterprises with the Use of Fuzzy Sets

Abstract

The aim of the article is to solve an actual problem of assessing and forecasting the risks of innovation activity of an enterprise under uncertainty. Numerous studies dedicated to this problem suggest various qualitative and quantitative methods, however, most papers present no results of their practical application, which calls the usefulness of their use into question. With the help of the scientific and methodological approach based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the model of predicting the expected risk using fuzzy triangular numbers is proposed. All possible cases of interaction of the expected value of the studied indicator and the indicator characterizing its boundary conditions are investigated. With the help of the received formulas, the total risk of investing in an innovation project is determined depending on the boundary conditions. The index of profitability of investments is chosen as the indicator to be studied. The model allows potential investors and developers to select the optimal values of the project parameters provided that the risk is minimized.

Keywords

• innovation risk
• forecasting
• fuzzy sets
• investments
• profitability index