Prediction of Mean Sea Level with GNSS-VLM Correction Using a Hybrid Deep Learning Model in Australia

Abstract

The prediction of sea level rise is extremely important for improved future climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study uses a hybrid convolutional neural Network (CNN) and a bidirectional long short-term (BiLSTM) model with successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD) to predict the absolute sea level for two study sites in Australia (Port Kembla and Milner Bay). More importantly, the sea level measurements using a tide gauge were corrected using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements of the vertical land movement (VLM). The SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model was benchmarked by a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR) and gradient boosting (GB). The SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model outperformed all the comparative models with high correlation values of more than 0.95 for Port Kembla and Milner Bay. Similarly, the SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model achieved the highest values for the Willmott index, the Nash–Sutcliffe index and the Legates and McCabe index for both study sites. The projected linear trend showed the expected annual mean sea rise for 2030. Using the current trend, Port Kembla was projected to have an MSL value of 1.03 m with a rate rise of approx. 4.5 mm/year. The rate of the MSL for Milner Bay was comparatively lower with a value of approx. 2.75 mm/year and an expected MSL value of 1.27 m for the year 2030.

Keywords

• mean sea level (MSL)
• Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)
• vertical land movement (VLM)
• convolutional neural network (CNN)
• bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM)
• signal decomposition by successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD)