Assessing lithological uncertainty in dikes: Simulating construction history and its implications for flood safety assessment

Abstract

Abstract Dikes often have a long history of reinforcement, with each reinforcement adding new material resulting in a heterogeneous dike. As data on the dike internal heterogeneity is sparse, it is generally overlooked in the stability assessment of dikes. We present an object‐based and process‐based model simulating dike construction history on archeological dike cross, yielding similar patterns of heterogeneity as observed in real dikes, and apply it in a dike safety assessment. Model predictions improve when being based on more accurate statistics of dike buildup, or when being conditioned to ground truth data. When incorporated in a dike stability assessment, multiple model runs can be coupled to hydrological simulations and dike slope stability calculations, resulting in a probabilistic stability assessment considering internal dike heterogeneity. While high‐resolution observations are still sparse, good model accuracies can be reached by combining regional information on dike buildup with local point observations and this model provides a parsimonious basis to include information of internal dike heterogeneity in safety assessments.

Keywords

• construction history
• dike lithology
• flood safety
• groundwater
• heterogeneity