Economic perceptions and voting behavior in US presidential elections

Abstract

The economic voting literature disagrees over the exogeneity of economic perceptions on individual electoral behavior. One side argues that economic perceptions are driven by partisan dispositions, which then calls into question the substantive importance of this factor in assessing electoral behavior. A second side argues that voters rationally assess the economy and accurately use this information to inform their electoral behavior. This article addresses this disagreement by disentangling economic perceptions from partisan dispositions. Using data from the American National Election Study from 1968 to 2016, we link objective macroeconomic indicators to individual economic perceptions, and then assess its explanatory power on vote choice in US presidential elections. The results indicate that objective economic perceptions have a substantive impact on support for incumbent candidates. Moreover, the estimated effect sizes are consistent with previous research estimating the relative importance of party identification and economic perceptions on vote choice.