Geospatial Analysis of Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks among Cattle in Uttar Pradesh, India, 2021–2022

Abstract

The emergence of lumpy skin disease (LSD) among cattle in India is concerning. District-level data on LSD cases in Uttar Pradesh between 2021 and 2022 were analyzed. A stepwise spatial analytical approach was followed by first constructing yearly and monthly disease maps for LSD incidence rates (IRs), then spatially interpolating the LSD IRs, followed by evaluating the global and local clustering of LSD IRs and finally conducting spatial regression modeling. Overall, 5784 LSD cases from 6 districts and 112,226 cases from 33 districts were detected in 2021 and 2022, respectively. In the incremental spatial autocorrelation analysis, the highest global clustering of LSD IRs for the 2022 outbreak was detected at 196.49 km. For the 2021 LSD outbreak, one district with high-low and nine districts with low-high LSD IRs were identified in the eastern region of the state. For the 2022 LSD outbreak, 13 districts with high-high and 7 districts with low-high LSD IRs were identified in the western part of the state. A geographically weighted regression model identified the impact of climate (temperature and humidity) and land cover (pasture, fallow, and non-agricultural land) on LSD IRs. The study results can aid animal health authorities in developing LSD prevention and control programs.

Keywords

• lumpy skin disease
• India
• spatial analysis
• clustering
• climate
• cattle