Consideration of economic risks in a comparative analysis of nuclear technologies with different maturity levels

Abstract

Less developed reactor technologies are characterized by a high uncertainty level of the key performance indicators, as compared to more mature options, due to lack of information on the design, operation and cost data, etc., while the expected performance of such systems is normally more attractive in comparison with more mature options. Evidently, a greater uncertainty leads to higher economic risks involved in the deployment of the respective technology. Evaluating comparatively the competitiveness and performance of reactor technologies at different maturity levels requires taking into account economic risks to balance the judgments regarding the expected performance of the considered options. A reliable basis for this is formed by the economic risk theory. Evaluation of risk indicators requires calculation of characteristics for probabilistic distributions of economic performance indicators and systemic use of statistical approaches based on Monte Carlo methods. Demonstration analysis results for the risk indicator evaluation have been discussed as applied to different economic performance indicators based on the example of a comparative analysis for two hypothetical light water reactor technologies to be considered in the selection of the most attractive option. Use of economic risk indicators for the comparative evaluation of reactor technologies appears to be helpful to decision makers not familiar with the technical characteristics and performance measures of reactor technologies but informed about the economic risk concepts. Such methodology may be employed efficiently to interpret the ranking results in a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of less and more mature reactor technologies.

Keywords

• Reactor technologies
• Performance indicators
• Economic risks
• Uncertainty
• Decision-making