A gravity model approach to understand the spread of pandemics: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak
Frimpong Albert Opoku,
Arhin Kwadwo,
Boachie Micheal Kofi,
Acheampong Kwame
Affiliations
Frimpong Albert Opoku
Department of Banking and Finance, University of Professional Studies, Accra, Ghana
Arhin Kwadwo
Department of Economics, Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration, Accra, Ghana
Boachie Micheal Kofi
Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard College Campus, Durban 4001, South Africa
Acheampong Kwame
Department of Accounting Studies Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development, Kumasi, Ghana
Pandemics disrupt the global economy. Understanding the transmission pattern of pandemics informs policies to prevent or reduce the catastrophic consequences associated with pandemics. In this study, we applied the gravity model of trade to investigate the transmission pattern of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across countries. The results suggest an outbreak in a country is likely to spread faster (slower) from a shrinking (booming) economy to a booming (shrinking) economy.
