Prediction of water enrichment of weathered bedrock based on Bayes discriminant model

Abstract

Weathered bedrock aquifer is the main water-filled aquifer for coal mining in Jurassic coalfields in northern Shaanxi. The regional prediction of the water richness of weathered bedrock aquifer is the key to mine water control. Taking the central and western part of Hongliulin Minefield as the research area, based on the analysis of the factors affecting the water-richness of the weathered bedrock, the thickness of the weathered bedrock, the core removal rate, the degree of weathering, the combination of lithology, the top elevation of the weathered bedrock and the sand base ratio are selected to use as the discriminant indexes, 41 groups of effective weathered bedrock borehole pumping test data in the study area are used as training samples and verification samples with a 3∶1 random allocation method to construct a water-rich Bayes discriminant analysis model. This model is used to predict the water richness category of weathered bedrock that has not been drilled for pumping test in the central and western part of Hongliulin Minefield, and the water richness prediction diagram of weathered bedrock is obtained. The results show that the overall water-rich water in the western first panel of the study area is relatively strong, and the spatial distribution of strong water-rich area is uneven. Most areas of the north second panel and the south second panel have relatively weak water richness, and the extremely weak water rich areas are distributed in the southeast. By comparing with the actual production of the working face water inflow and the location of the water outlet point, the prediction result of the water-rich zone is consistent with the actual situation.

Keywords

• weathered bedrock
• water richness
• bayes discriminant analysis method
• top elevation of weathered bedrock
• mine prevention and control of water