Model Prakiraan Debit Air dalam Rangka Optimalisasi Pengelolaan Waduk Saguling – Kaskade Citarum

Abstract

Enhancement of population and industry have lead to an enhancement demand for raw water and electrical energy. One of the electricity provider in Java-Madura-Bali is Saguling Reservoir. The water intake of Saguling is upstream Citarum watershed with an area of 2340.88 km2. Saguling is also one of the reservoirs that form Citarum Cascade consisting of Saguling, Cirata and Jatiluhur. Data of reservoir discharge has an important role in the management of water resources. Discharge forecasting approach taken in this research was the spatial correlation method (rainfall and discharge) and discrete Markov method that used the principle of stochastic Markov model of 3 classes. Saguling inflow discharge that used in this research was data from 1986 to 2013. In the spatial correlation method, combination type of PPPQt obtained a correlation value of 0.86 while for discrete Markov method obtained the correlation value of 0.804. In order to optimization of reservoir management, this research found that the reservoir management with continuous model provides a higher correlation values between the actual trajectory and the guidelines trajectory in Saguling which amounted to 0,940 compared to discrete Markov method that provides a correlation between the actual trajectory and the trajectory guidelines Saguling at 0.852.

Keywords

• Discrete Markov method
• forecast discharge