ORGANIZING SCENARIO VARIABLES BY APPLYING THE INTERPRETATIVE STRUCTURAL MODELING (ISM)

Abstract

The scenario building method is a thought mode - taken to effect in an optimized, strategic manner - based on trends and uncertain events, concerning a large variety of potential results that may impact the future of an organization.In this study, the objective is to contribute towards a possible improvement in Godet and Schoemaker´s scenario preparation methods, by employing the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) as a tool for the analysis of variables.Given this is an exploratory theme, bibliographical research with tool definition and analysis, examples extraction from literature and a comparison exercise of referred methods, were undertaken.It was verified that ISM may substitute or complement the original tools for the analysis of variables of scenarios per Godet and Schoemaker’s methods, given the fact that it enables an in-depth analysis of relations between variables in a shorter period of time, facilitating both structuring and construction of possible scenarios.Key-words: Strategy. Future studies. Interpretative Structural Modeling.