Научно-технические ведомости СПбГПУ: Экономические науки (Oct 2019)
ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE FOOD PROVISION OF THE REGIONS OF RUSSIA
Abstract
Conducting a socio-economic analysis of food markets at the regional level of the economy provides an assessment of the level of food security and self-sufficiency of the main types of agricultural and food products. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology and formalized model of economic and statistical assessment of food security and self-sufficiency of regions based on the use of methods of economic and mathematical modeling. When assessing the level of food self-sufficiency in regions, groups of self-sufficiency indicators calculated in cost or in-kind units of measurement can be used. As part of this study, a comprehensive indicator is proposed - the Food Self-Sufficiency Index (IFSS), which takes into account the achieved level of self-sufficiency for various types of food products at the regional level. The threshold values of the indicator are established that allow classifying food self-sufficiency levels. An integrated indicator, the food security index (IFP), which takes into account groups of indicators in the sphere of production, distribution and consumption of food products, has been developed as a methodological toolkit for analysis; a range of possible indicator values has been established. In order to analyze the differentiation of regions in food supply, an original methodological toolkit is proposed - the food security matrix, which allows ranking the regions according to the level of food supply. The sequence of stages of the procedure for ranking the regions by selected groups of indicators in the field of food security based on the proposed methodological tools is detailed. The use of a graphical model for assessing the food security of the region, taking into account the actual and normative volumes of food products consumption by the population, is justified. A theoretical formalized model of the multifactor function of food security (FP) is proposed, and a graph of food security is recommended as a graphical representation of the function of food security. The proposed methodology and assessment model were tested on the example of the regions of the Southern Federal District (SFD). Based on the analysis of food self-sufficiency indicators, it was established that the food self-sufficiency index in 2017 corresponded to the optimal level, and indicators in the Volgograd, Astrakhan, Rostov regions, and the Republic of Kalmykia were also at the optimal level. The proposed model and methodology for assessing food security can be used when conducting socio-economic regionalization of regions according to the criteria for food security in regional markets.
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