Assessing Climate Change Impact on Cropland Suitability in Kyrgyzstan: Where Are Potential High-Quality Cropland and the Way to the Future

Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in Kyrgyzstan. There have been negative spillover effects in agriculture. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on cropland suitability in Kyrgyzstan. We used the random forest algorithm to develop a model that captures the effects of multiple climate and environment factors at a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The model was then applied in the scenario analysis for an understanding of how climate change affects cropland distribution. The potential high-quality cropland was found to be included in existing croplands, while the remaining were distributed around the Chu-Talas valley, the Issyk-kul area, and the Fergana valley. These potential high-quality croplands comprise grasslands (47.1%) and croplands (43.7%). In the future, the potential high-quality cropland exhibited inland trends at the periphery of original cropland category, with grassland and cropland as the primary land components. Due to climate change, potential high-quality cropland is expected to gradually reduce from the 2050s to the 2070s, exhibiting the largest reduction in potential high-quality areas for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Therefore, the short- and long-term adaptation strategies are needed for prioritizing the croplands to ensure food security and agricultural resilience.

Keywords

• cropland suitability
• random forest model
• scenario analysis
• climate change adaptation
• Kyrgyzstan