Yönetim ve Ekonomi (Jan 2007)
Para Politikası Etkilerinin Ölçümü: Türkiye Örneği(Measurement of the Monetary Policy’s Effects: The Case of Turkey)
Abstract
This study attemts to test real effects of monetary policies employing Cochrane (1998) method by using Turkish data for the period of January 1988-December 2003. The findings reveal that both unexpected and expected monetary policies have real effects. From the viewpoint of ecomic theories, the findings are in line with the Keynesian argument contrary to the Classiscal Theory. The results are not supportive to the Rational Expectation Theory, when the real effects of monetary policy are taken as both expected and unexpected. The study also indicate that both the expected and unexpected monetary shocks appears to have an effect on the real output. The size of the effect varies depending on the expectation of economic agents. As the degree of expectation increases (λ), the size of the effect increases, correspondingly. The maximum effect of monetary policies appears when λ =1.
