Annals of Medicine (Jan 2021)

External validation of a clinical risk score to predict hospital admission and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients

  • Alexandra Halalau,
  • Zaid Imam,
  • Patrick Karabon,
  • Nikhil Mankuzhy,
  • Aciel Shaheen,
  • John Tu,
  • Christopher Carpenter

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/07853890.2020.1828616
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 53, no. 1
pp. 78 – 86

Abstract

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AbstractBackground Identification of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring hospital admission or at high-risk of in-hospital mortality is essential to guide patient triage and to provide timely treatment for higher risk hospitalized patients.Methods A retrospective multi-centre (8 hospital) cohort at Beaumont Health, Michigan, USA, reporting on COVID-19 patients diagnosed between 1 March and 1 April 2020 was used for score validation. The COVID-19 Risk of Complications Score was automatically computed by the EHR. Multivariate logistic regression models were built to predict hospital admission and in-hospital mortality using individual variables constituting the score. Validation was performed using both discrimination and calibration.Results Compared to Green scores, Yellow Scores (OR: 5.72) and Red Scores (OR: 19.1) had significantly higher odds of admission (both p < .0001). Similarly, Yellow Scores (OR: 4.73) and Red Scores (OR: 13.3) had significantly higher odds of in-hospital mortality than Green Scores (both p < .0001). The cross-validated C-Statistics for the external validation cohort showed good discrimination for both hospital admission (C = 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77–0.81)) and in-hospital mortality (C = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71–0.78)).Conclusions The COVID-19 Risk of Complications Score predicts the need for hospital admission and in-hospital mortality patients with COVID-19.Key points:Can an electronic health record generated risk score predict the risk of hospital admission and in-hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)?In both validation cohorts of 2,025 and 1,290 COVID-19, the cross-validated C-Statistics showed good discrimination for both hospital admission (C = 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77–0.81)) and in-hospital mortality (C = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71–0.78)), respectively.The COVID-19 Risk of Complications Score may help predict the need for hospital admission if a patient contracts SARS-CoV-2 infection and in-hospital mortality for a hospitalized patient with COVID-19.

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