Freddy: breaking record for tropical cyclone precipitation?

Abstract

Depending on the location on the Earth, the amount of precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can reach 20% of the total yearly precipitation over land and up to 40% over some ocean regions. TC induced freshwater flooding has been suggested to be the largest threat to human lives due to TCs. Therefore, a reliable quantification of the precipitation amount associated with each past TC is important for a better definition of the TC fingerprint on the climate. The temporal and horizontal resolution of state-of-the-art observational datasets and atmospheric reanalysis gives the possibility to quantify precipitation associated with TCs globally following the observed TC tracks. In this work we compare the TC-related precipitation in various observational and reanalysis datasets. A particular focus is given to the record-breaking TC Freddy (Southern Indian Ocean, 2023). Here we show that the time-varying bias in TC associated precipitation, due to the positive trend in assimilated observations, makes it difficult to assess long-term trend investigation based on reanalysis. To this aim we need to build on state-of-the-art general circulation models, free to evolve under historical radiative forcing.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• lifetime accumulated precipitation
• historical trend